U.S. Governors Model
Updated on November 4, 2024 at 03:19 PM Eastern Time.
After eight years of two divisive presidencies, the election is anything but normal.
This model is updated daily, and uses state-level and national-level polls combined with fundamentals to create an accurate picture.
Overview
The governorships are projected to have a bias of R+2.6
with 23.7 governorships going for the Democrats
and 26.3 governorships going for the Republicans.
Map
Here's a map of the races!
District Table
Methodology
Rating Categories
Under 60%: a Tossup | 60% to 70%: Lean Democrat or Lean Republican | 70% to 95%: Likely Democrat or Likely Republican | 95% or above: Safe Democrat or Safe Republican
Data Sources
OpenSecrets | Redistricter | FiveThirtyEight | Dave's Redistricting | Wikimedia Commons | Wikipedia | Daily Kos | CA SoS Shirley Weber | WA SoS Steve Hobbs | Bokeh
Methodology Statement
You can read my methodology statement by clicking on this link, or you can view it directly in the website blog (the blog is broken though, for now.)
Download the Data