U.S. House Model — California's 1st District ← Back to national forecast Updated on November 4, 2024 at 03:19 PM Eastern Time. After two years of a divided House, all House seats are up for election.
This model is updated daily, and uses state-level and national-level polls combined with fundamentals to create an accurate picture.
Overview California's 1st District is rated as Safe Republican. Candidates
The Democrats are represented by Rose Penelope Yee
while the Republicans are represented by Doug Lamalfa. Chance of Victory
The Democrats have a 0.0% probability of winning this seat,
while the Republicans have a 100.0% probability of winning this seat.
0.0%
100.0%
Margin
Take a look at the brand spanking new margin calculator!
Name
Margin
Partisan Lean
R+20.9
National Environment
D+1.7
Incumbency
R+1.5
Fundraising
R+4.3
Polling Average
N/A
Demographic Adjustment
D+0.1
R+22.0
This seat is projected to vote R+22.0
with 39.0% of voters voting for the Democrats and
61.0% of voters voting for the Republicans.
Nowcast If the election was held today...
this seat would be projected to vote R+22.0
with 39.0% of voters voting for the Democrats and
61.0% of voters voting for the Republicans.
This is a difference of D+0.0 from the actual forecast.
This seat would have a 0.0% chance of voting for the Democrats and
100.0% chance of voting for the Republicans.
Nowcasts are NOT official models.
Change Over Time
The changes in the Democratic and Republican probabilities to win this seat are displayed in the graph below.
