U.S. President Model Updated on November 4, 2024 at 03:19 PM Eastern Time. After eight years of two divisive presidencies, the election is anything but normal.
This model is updated daily, and uses state-level and national-level polls combined with fundamentals to create an accurate picture.
Overview The Presidency is rated as a Tossup. Probability
The Democrats have a 50.8% probability of winning the Presidency,
while the Republicans have a 49.1% probability of winning the Presidency.
50.8%
49.1%
Electoral College The Electoral College is projected to vote D+12.4
with 275.2 seats going for the Democrats and
262.8 seats going for the Republicans.Popular Vote The presidential polling projects a D+0.8 national environment... the economic fundamentals projects a D+5.8 national environment... ...and the national popular vote for President is projected to vote D+1.3
with 50.6% of voters voting for the Democrats and
49.4% of voters voting for the Republicans.Map
Here's a map of the race!
