U.S. President Model Updated on September 29, 2024 at 04:55 PM Eastern Time. After eight years of two divisive presidencies, the election is anything but normal.
This model is updated daily, and uses state-level and national-level polls combined with fundamentals to create an accurate picture.
Overview The Presidency is rated as a Tossup. Probability
The Democrats have a 56.5% probability of winning the Presidency,
while the Republicans have a 43.4% probability of winning the Presidency.
56.5%
43.4%
Electoral College The Electoral College is projected to vote D+61.8
with 299.9 seats going for the Democrats and
238.1 seats going for the Republicans.Popular Vote The presidential polling projects a D+3.3 national environment... the economic fundamentals projects a D+5.8 national environment... ...and the national popular vote for President is projected to vote D+4.0
with 52.0% of voters voting for the Democrats and
48.0% of voters voting for the Republicans.Map
Here's a map of the race!
