| State | Margin | D Probability (%) | R Probability (%) | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK | R+7.2 | 11.9% | 88.1% | Likely Republican |
| AL | R+24.7 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Safe Republican |
| AR | R+26.6 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Safe Republican |
| AZ | D+0.2 | 51.6% | 48.4% | Tossup |
| CA | D+29.2 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| CO | D+17.7 | 99.8% | 0.2% | Safe Democratic |
| CT | D+23.7 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| DC | D+92.1 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| DE | D+22.8 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| FL | R+2.7 | 32.8% | 67.2% | Lean Republican |
| GA | D+0.7 | 54.9% | 45.1% | Tossup |
| HI | D+29.3 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| IA | R+7.4 | 11.2% | 88.8% | Likely Republican |
| ID | R+29.6 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Safe Republican |
| IL | D+18.7 | 99.9% | 0.1% | Safe Democratic |
| IN | R+14.8 | 0.7% | 99.3% | Safe Republican |
| KS | R+11.4 | 3.1% | 96.9% | Safe Republican |
| KY | R+24.3 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Safe Republican |
| LA | R+18.2 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Safe Republican |
| MA | D+37.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| MD | D+36.3 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| ME | D+12.1 | 97.7% | 2.3% | Safe Democratic |
| ME-01 | D+27.8 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| ME-02 | R+4.6 | 22.5% | 77.5% | Likely Republican |
| MI | D+0.1 | 50.5% | 49.5% | Tossup |
| MN | D+8.8 | 92.8% | 7.2% | Likely Democratic |
| MO | R+13.5 | 1.3% | 98.7% | Safe Republican |
| MS | R+16.6 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Safe Republican |
| MT | R+15.3 | 0.6% | 99.4% | Safe Republican |
| NC | D+0.3 | 51.7% | 48.3% | Tossup |
| ND | R+33.3 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Safe Republican |
| NE | R+16.3 | 0.4% | 99.6% | Safe Republican |
| NE-01 | R+7.5 | 10.7% | 89.3% | Likely Republican |
| NE-02 | D+10.2 | 95.4% | 4.6% | Safe Democratic |
| NE-03 | R+51.8 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Safe Republican |
| NH | D+10.8 | 96.2% | 3.8% | Safe Democratic |
| NJ | D+17.9 | 99.8% | 0.2% | Safe Democratic |
| NM | D+12.1 | 97.7% | 2.3% | Safe Democratic |
| NV | D+2.8 | 67.9% | 32.1% | Lean Democratic |
| NY | D+22.6 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| OH | R+7.0 | 12.4% | 87.6% | Likely Republican |
| OK | R+30.5 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Safe Republican |
| OR | D+18.1 | 99.9% | 0.1% | Safe Democratic |
| PA | D+0.4 | 52.9% | 47.1% | Tossup |
| RI | D+22.7 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| SC | R+10.5 | 4.2% | 95.8% | Safe Republican |
| SD | R+25.4 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Safe Republican |
| TN | R+22.2 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Safe Republican |
| TX | R+4.0 | 25.7% | 74.3% | Likely Republican |
| UT | R+18.5 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Safe Republican |
| VA | D+10.0 | 95.1% | 4.9% | Safe Democratic |
| VT | D+40.9 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| WA | D+22.2 | 100.0% | 0.0% | Safe Democratic |
| WI | D+1.8 | 61.9% | 38.1% | Lean Democratic |
| WV | R+37.2 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Safe Republican |
| WY | R+42.4 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Safe Republican |