State	Rating	Flip Status	Median Margin	Dem % chance of winning	GOP % chance of winning
0	AL	Safe R	False	-34.150918	0.00000	100.00000
1	AR	Safe R	False	-30.025473	0.00000	100.00000
2	AZ	Lean D	False	2.254326	61.27163	38.72837
3	CA	Safe D	False	26.549474	100.00000	0.00000
4	CO	Likely D	False	8.880078	94.40039	5.59961
5	CT	Safe D	False	20.762497	100.00000	0.00000
6	FL	Safe R	False	-9.989114	0.05443	99.94557
7	GA	Tossup	True	-0.158628	49.20686	50.79314
8	HI	Safe D	False	30.490254	100.00000	0.00000
9	IA	Safe R	False	-13.401659	0.00000	100.00000
10	ID	Safe R	False	-37.820489	0.00000	100.00000
11	IL	Safe D	False	21.884429	100.00000	0.00000
12	IN	Safe R	False	-20.439824	0.00000	100.00000
13	KS	Safe R	False	-24.198898	0.00000	100.00000
14	KY	Safe R	False	-29.201083	0.00000	100.00000
15	MD	Safe D	False	30.413593	100.00000	0.00000
16	MO	Safe R	False	-19.395095	0.00000	100.00000
17	NC	Lean R	False	-2.656357	36.71821	63.28179
18	ND	Safe R	False	-39.498048	0.00000	100.00000
19	NH	Lean D	False	4.020696	70.10348	29.89652
20	NV	Tossup	False	0.162219	50.81110	49.18890
21	NY	Safe D	False	24.116162	100.00000	0.00000
22	OH	Lean R	False	-4.855815	25.72093	74.27907
23	OK	Safe R	False	-24.863381	0.00000	100.00000
24	OK-S	Safe R	False	-24.354605	0.00000	100.00000
25	OR	Safe D	False	21.144810	100.00000	0.00000
26	PA	Tossup	True	0.726263	53.63132	46.36868
27	SC	Safe R	False	-25.414061	0.00000	100.00000
28	SD	Safe R	False	-32.004011	0.00000	100.00000
29	UT	Safe R	False	-9.670707	1.64646	98.35354
30	VT	Safe D	False	33.545327	100.00000	0.00000
31	WA	Safe D	False	11.070522	100.00000	0.00000
32	WI	Lean R	False	-3.206222	33.96889	66.03111

Safe Republican - A <=95% chance of voting Republican

Likely Republican - A <=75% chance of voting Republican

Leans Republican - A <=55% chance of voting Republican

Tossup - A >=55% chance of voting for either party

Leans Democratic - A <=55% chance of voting Democratic

Likely Democratic - A <=75% chance of voting Democratic

Safe Democratic - A <=95% chance of voting Democratic

This model is made up of two components, two which everyone that's a politics junkie knows well - the fundamentals and the polls.

The model fundamentals are made up of three components in of themselves - a presidential composite using

• 5% 2012 presidential election results
• 15% 2016 presidential election results
• and 80% 2020 presidential election results.

On top of that, the presidential composite is adjusted for district trends over the last 2 years, which altogether makes a partisan lean index. But there are 3 states where there's been top-two primary results from 2022 that can suitably replace a partisan lean index - Alaska, California, and Washington, so AK/CA/WA adjusted (for primary-general swing) primary results MOSTLY replace the partisan lean index in those states. However, a partisan lean index is on its own not a good way to forecast elections, so that's why I've also used;

• a fundraising index using the dollar spending difference between the Democratic and Republican candidates. SPECIAL THANKS TO ROB PYERS!
• a candidate index (using 2020 results for current incumbents and candidate experience (i.e. whether a candidate is a mayor, state representative, etc) for non-incumbents)
• district-by-district ratings from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter , Inside Elections from Nathan Gonzales , Sabato's Crystal Ball from the UVA CFP , and Split Ticket .
• and a demographic index based off AP votecast (although demographics has very little weight.)

As for the polls, it's a little more simple; polling data simply uses a weighted average of every poll based off of recency. Poll margins are also edited based off if they're a Democratic or Republican internal polls, since internal polls are usually 5 points more biased toward the surveying party.
After the fundamentals and poll margins are calculated, they're weighted together using the amount of polls that have been produced, which produces an exact margin. Once an exact margin is created, a randomizer of +2 to -2 points is ran 250,000 times, and the median margin is used as the neutral year forecast margin. The neutral year forecast margin is then added to the state level environment (which is calculated from the national environment), which produces the official acctuallydavid.com forecast margin for the state.