U.S. Governor Model — North Carolina ← Back to national forecast Updated on September 29, 2024 at 04:55 PM Eastern Time. After eight years of two divisive presidencies, the election is anything but normal.
This model is updated daily, and uses state-level and national-level polls combined with fundamentals to create an accurate picture.
Overview North Carolina is rated as Likely Democratic. Candidates
The Democrats are represented by Josh Stein
while the Republicans are represented by Mark Robinson. Chance of Victory
The Democrats have a 94.7% probability of winning this seat,
while the Republicans have a 5.3% probability of winning this seat.
94.7%
5.3%
Margin
Take a look at the brand spanking new margin calculator!
Name
Margin
Partisan Lean
R+2.1
National Environment
D+3.9
Incumbency
N/A
Fundraising
N/A
Polling Average
D+14.9
Demographic Adjustment
D+0.0
D+11.1
This seat is projected to vote D+11.1
with 55.5% of voters voting for the Democrats and
44.5% of voters voting for the Republicans.Nowcast If the election was held today...
this seat would be projected to vote D+13.0
with 56.5% of voters voting for the Democrats and
43.5% of voters voting for the Republicans.
This is a difference of D+1.9 from the actual forecast.
This seat would have a 99.6% chance of voting for the Democrats and
0.4% chance of voting for the Republicans.
Nowcasts are NOT official models.
Change Over Time
The changes in the Democratic and Republican probabilities to win this seat are displayed in the graph below.
